氣候變化報告翻譯-中英對照
在全球氣候變化的背景下,我國的氣候變化對全球氣候變化響應十分明顯,尤其在最近的50年,我國的地表平均溫度、降水、極端氣候事件以及其他氣候要素則出現了較為顯著的變化。年平均地表氣溫增加1.1℃,增溫速率為0.22℃/10年,明顯高于全球或北半球同期平均增溫速率。全國平均年降水量雖然沒有呈現顯著變化趨勢,但降水量的年際波動較大,降水量趨勢存在明顯的區域差異。從1956年到2000年,長江中下游和東南地區、西部大部分地區、以及東北北部和內蒙古大部分的年降水量有不同程度增加;但是,我國華北、西北東部、東北南部等地區年降水量出現下降趨勢。我國的日照時間、水面蒸發量、近地面平均風速、總云量均呈顯著減少趨勢,全國平均霜凍日數減少了10天左右。隨著氣候變暖,高溫、暴雨等極端氣候事件將變得更為頻繁,我國華北和東北地區干旱趨重,而長江中下游流域和東南地區則洪澇加重。
3、經濟發展方式粗放
我國經濟結構雖然得到一定程度的調整,但是產業結構層次仍然很低,簡單數量擴展等問題還比較突出。
中國在世界經濟總量中所占比例是遞減的。2005年中國GDP總量已經居世界第6位,但同先進國家和世界平均水平的差距不僅沒有縮小,反而越拉越大。GDP總量只有日本的38%、美國的14%,勞動生產率僅是發達國家的0.03%。人均GDP排名全球第112位,只相當于美國的3.2%、日本的3.7%、馬來西亞的29%、伊朗的51%。與中國在世界經濟總量中所占比例遞減相反,資源消耗、污染排放占世界總量比例持續增長,高消耗、高排放、高增長的粗放型經濟發展模式對我國的生態環境帶來嚴重的壓力,不僅使資源供需矛盾更加突出,而且導致嚴重的生態環境壓力。
4、生態資產市場配置缺失
到2000年底,我國已初步建立起社會主義市場經濟新體制。但是生態資產損失并沒有被納入經濟成本,生態、資源配置領域的市場機制尚未建立起來,嚴重影響我國的可持續發展能力。據測算,我國環境污染損失約占GDP的3%~8%,生態破壞(草原、濕地、森林、土壤侵蝕等)約占GDP的6%-7%。環境經濟政策未能及時調整,方式單調。一些發達國家已經普遍采用的經濟手段尚未借鑒引入。對于自然環境資源的價值基礎和價格難以確定,是造成自然資源目前難以納入經濟核算體系中的一個重要原因。如我國已實行排污收費制度多年,但長期處于“欠量補償”的狀態,即收費大大低于治理成本,更低于生態環境損失,沒能體現環境的價值。資源價值是資源經濟管理的基礎。由于缺乏這一基礎,使得環境經濟政策收效并不顯著。《21世紀議程》提出“應在所有國家中建立環境與經濟一體化的核算系統”。采用環境核算體系和評價自然資源價值是實現環境資源市場配置的關鍵,但是,
這項工作在我國尚未取得實質進展。
2. Abnormal climate changes
Against the background of global climate changes, climate changes in China has made a quite distinct response to the global climate changes, especially in recent 50 years, more significant changes have taken place in the average surface temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events and other climatic factors of China. The average surface temperature has increased by 1.1℃ with a warming rate of 0.22℃ per 10 years, significantly higher than the average warming rate of the world or the Northern Hemisphere over the same period. Although the nationwide average annual precipitation has no significant changes, yet the inter-annual fluctuation of precipitation is obvious and precipitation has obvious regional differences. From 1956 to 2000, the annual precipitations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southeastern regions, most of the western regions, the northern part of northeast China and most of
Inner Mongolia increased in varying degrees; however, the annual precipitations in northern China, the eastern part of northwest China, the southern part of northeast China fell to some extent. The sunshine time, water surface evaporation, average wind speed near the ground and total cloud cover have all been reducing significantly and the nationwide average frost days have decreased by 10 days. With global warming, extreme weather events such as high temperature and rainstorm will become more frequent; droughts in northern and northeast China will become increasingly serious while floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southeastern regions will increase too.
3. Extensive economic development mode
Chinese economic structure has been adjusted to a certain extent, but the industrial structure level is still low and the problems like simple quantity expansion are still relatively prominent.
Chinese economy occupies a diminishing proportion of the total world economic amount. In 2005, Chinese GDP ranked to the sixth in the world, but the gap between Chinese GDP and the GDP of developed countries or the average GDP level of the world did not narrow but became bigger and bigger on the contrary.
Chinese GDP only accounted for 38% of that in Japan and 14% of that in the United States and the labor productivity was only 0.03% of that in the developed countries. Per capita GDP ranked to the 112th in the world, only accounting for 3.2% of that in U.S., 3.7% of that in Japan, 29% of that in Malaysia and 51% of that in Iran. On the contrary of the diminishing proportion of Chinese GDP in the world, both resource consumption and pollution emission in China occupy a constantly increasing proportion of those in the world. The extensive economic development mode with high consumption, high emission and high growth has brought a heavy pressure to Chinese ecological environment, not only making more obvious contradiction between supply and demand of resources but also causing serious pressure on the ecological environment.
4. Allocation loss of ecological assets market
China had initially established a new socialist market economic system by the end of 2000. However, ecological assets losses have not been covered by the economic cost and the market mechanism in ecological and resource allocation fields has not yet been set up, which have made seriously impacts on the sustainable development capacity of China. According to estimates, China’s environmental pollution losses account for about 3%-8% of GDP and the ecological destruction (grasslands, wetlands, forests and soil erosion, etc.) account for about 6%-7% of GDP. Environmental economic policies fail to be adjusted and have monotone patterns. The economic instruments widely adopted in some developed countries have not yet been introduced into China. The difficulty in determining the value bases and prices of natural resources is an important reason why it is difficult to cover natural resources into the economic accounting system currently. For instance, China has implemented pollution charge system for many years but is still in the “balance compensation” status for a long time, namely, the charge is much lower than regulatory costs and especially less than the ecological environment losses so has not reflected the environment value. The resource value is the basis of resource economic management. In the absence of such basis, the effects of economic policies on environment are not significant. Agenda 21 has proposed that “shall set up an accounting system of environmental and economic integration in all countries” Use of environmental accounting system and evaluation of natural resources’ values is the key to realize the market allocation of environmental resources, but this work in China has not yet made any substantial progress.
2013.4.13